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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.91+4.95vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+6.33vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.41+5.27vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.29+5.63vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.60+2.40vs Predicted
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6Boston University1.65+5.33vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+4.35vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.22+1.07vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.09+0.32vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+0.77vs Predicted
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11Harvard University2.12+0.03vs Predicted
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12Boston College2.02-2.34vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.09-3.68vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93-3.58vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College2.38-6.81vs Predicted
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16Yale University2.85-9.52vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-5.46vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.17-1.53vs Predicted
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19North Carolina State University0.77-3.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.95Brown University2.9111.2%1st Place
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8.33U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.326.3%1st Place
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8.27Georgetown University2.416.7%1st Place
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9.63Connecticut College2.295.1%1st Place
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7.4U. S. Naval Academy2.609.4%1st Place
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11.33Boston University1.653.0%1st Place
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11.35University of California at Santa Barbara1.443.2%1st Place
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9.07Tufts University2.226.0%1st Place
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9.32Tulane University2.095.0%1st Place
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10.77Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.9%1st Place
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11.03Harvard University2.123.9%1st Place
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9.66Boston College2.024.5%1st Place
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9.32Roger Williams University2.095.1%1st Place
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10.42Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.934.6%1st Place
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8.19Dartmouth College2.386.8%1st Place
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6.48Yale University2.8511.5%1st Place
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11.54St. Mary's College of Maryland1.622.1%1st Place
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16.47University of Wisconsin0.170.9%1st Place
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15.46North Carolina State University0.770.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam O'Keefe | 11.2% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Scott Mais | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Micky Munns | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 3.1% |
| Ted McDonough | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 3.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Peter Foley III | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 2.7% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 2.5% |
| Jack Redmond | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Maks Groom | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 2.0% |
| William Michels | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Stephan Baker | 11.5% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Felix Cutler | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 3.7% |
| Phineas Tait | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 17.9% | 47.0% |
| Harrison Bailey | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 21.7% | 29.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.