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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+7.42vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.91+4.23vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.60+4.44vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.02+5.50vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.85+1.44vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93+4.09vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.65+4.39vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.22+0.85vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.09+0.50vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College2.38-1.94vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+0.47vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.41-3.62vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College2.29-3.52vs Predicted
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14Tulane University2.09-4.48vs Predicted
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15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-4.10vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-4.79vs Predicted
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17Harvard University2.12-6.00vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.17-1.40vs Predicted
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19North Carolina State University0.77-3.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.42U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.325.8%1st Place
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6.23Brown University2.9110.6%1st Place
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7.44U. S. Naval Academy2.608.6%1st Place
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9.5Boston College2.025.9%1st Place
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6.44Yale University2.8510.6%1st Place
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10.09Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.934.9%1st Place
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11.39Boston University1.653.2%1st Place
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8.85Tufts University2.226.0%1st Place
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9.5Roger Williams University2.095.1%1st Place
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8.06Dartmouth College2.387.1%1st Place
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11.47St. Mary's College of Maryland1.623.6%1st Place
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8.38Georgetown University2.416.1%1st Place
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9.48Connecticut College2.294.6%1st Place
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9.52Tulane University2.095.1%1st Place
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10.9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.1%1st Place
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11.21University of California at Santa Barbara1.443.5%1st Place
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11.0Harvard University2.124.2%1st Place
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16.6University of Wisconsin0.170.9%1st Place
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15.53North Carolina State University0.771.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 10.6% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.9% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Stephan Baker | 10.6% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Maks Groom | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 1.8% |
| Micky Munns | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 4.3% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| William Michels | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Felix Cutler | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 3.2% |
| Scott Mais | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Peter Foley III | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 2.3% |
| Ted McDonough | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% |
| Phineas Tait | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 18.3% | 45.9% |
| Harrison Bailey | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 10.8% | 21.5% | 29.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.