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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+6.19vs Predicted
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2Tulane University1.77+8.23vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.38+5.15vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.09+5.08vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.85+1.43vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.91-0.18vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+4.21vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.41-0.03vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-0.76vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93+0.16vs Predicted
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11Harvard University2.12+0.11vs Predicted
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12Boston College2.02-2.60vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College2.29-3.62vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.39-2.44vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.67-4.35vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-5.05vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-6.22vs Predicted
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18North Carolina State University0.77-2.52vs Predicted
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19University of Wisconsin0.17-2.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.19U. S. Naval Academy2.608.2%1st Place
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10.23Tulane University1.774.6%1st Place
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8.15Dartmouth College2.387.2%1st Place
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9.08Roger Williams University2.095.8%1st Place
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6.43Yale University2.859.4%1st Place
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5.82Brown University2.9112.0%1st Place
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11.21St. Mary's College of Maryland1.624.0%1st Place
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7.97Georgetown University2.417.7%1st Place
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8.24U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.326.9%1st Place
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10.16Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.934.2%1st Place
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11.11Harvard University2.123.5%1st Place
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9.4Boston College2.024.5%1st Place
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9.38Connecticut College2.295.8%1st Place
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11.56Boston University1.393.1%1st Place
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10.65Tufts University1.673.5%1st Place
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10.95University of California at Santa Barbara1.443.9%1st Place
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10.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.0%1st Place
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15.48North Carolina State University0.770.9%1st Place
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16.2University of Wisconsin0.170.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nathan Smith | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Asher Zittrer | 4.6% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% |
William Michels | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
Oliver Stokke | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
Stephan Baker | 9.4% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Liam O'Keefe | 12.0% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Felix Cutler | 4.0% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 3.5% |
Scott Mais | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
Nicholas Reeser | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
Maks Groom | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 1.8% |
Dylan Ascencios | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 3.0% |
Jack Redmond | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
Thomas Whittemore | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
Noah Robitshek | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 4.5% |
John Eastman | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 2.1% |
Ted McDonough | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 3.0% |
Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 1.8% |
Harrison Bailey | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 9.7% | 21.6% | 29.2% |
Phineas Tait | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 17.1% | 44.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.