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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.12+9.63vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College2.29+7.02vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+7.60vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+3.88vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.91+0.91vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.41+1.67vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.02+1.96vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.09+0.81vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77+1.07vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93-0.09vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.22-2.43vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.38-4.21vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy2.60-6.19vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62-3.06vs Predicted
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15Yale University2.85-8.62vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.17-0.43vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University0.77-2.19vs Predicted
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18Boston University1.65-7.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.63Harvard University2.123.5%1st Place
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9.02Connecticut College2.296.0%1st Place
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10.6University of California at Santa Barbara1.444.1%1st Place
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7.88U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.327.0%1st Place
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5.91Brown University2.9110.6%1st Place
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7.67Georgetown University2.417.5%1st Place
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8.96Boston College2.025.8%1st Place
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8.81Roger Williams University2.095.9%1st Place
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10.07Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.774.9%1st Place
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9.91Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.934.2%1st Place
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8.57Tufts University2.225.2%1st Place
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7.79Dartmouth College2.387.6%1st Place
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6.81U. S. Naval Academy2.609.8%1st Place
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10.94St. Mary's College of Maryland1.623.0%1st Place
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6.38Yale University2.8510.6%1st Place
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15.57University of Wisconsin0.170.7%1st Place
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14.81North Carolina State University0.771.0%1st Place
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10.69Boston University1.652.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Ascencios | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 3.4% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 6.0% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Ted McDonough | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 2.8% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 10.6% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Scott Mais | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 2.5% |
| Maks Groom | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 1.6% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| William Michels | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Felix Cutler | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 3.9% |
| Stephan Baker | 10.6% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Phineas Tait | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 17.3% | 46.6% |
| Harrison Bailey | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 22.1% | 31.2% |
| Micky Munns | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 2.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.