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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.12+9.77vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.91+3.65vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.38+4.52vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.85+2.10vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.60+1.89vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.41+1.60vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+0.63vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.29+0.94vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.02-0.15vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.22-1.61vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.65-0.45vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.93-2.34vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-2.84vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara1.44-3.58vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.09-6.33vs Predicted
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16North Carolina State University0.77-1.56vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland0.90-3.57vs Predicted
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18University of Wisconsin0.17-2.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.77Harvard University2.123.5%1st Place
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5.65Brown University2.9113.7%1st Place
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7.52Dartmouth College2.386.5%1st Place
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6.1Yale University2.8511.0%1st Place
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6.89U. S. Naval Academy2.608.8%1st Place
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7.6Georgetown University2.417.2%1st Place
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7.63U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.328.0%1st Place
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8.94Connecticut College2.294.8%1st Place
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8.85Boston College2.025.4%1st Place
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8.39Tufts University2.225.5%1st Place
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10.55Boston University1.654.1%1st Place
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9.66Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.934.7%1st Place
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10.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.773.9%1st Place
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10.42University of California at Santa Barbara1.443.9%1st Place
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8.67Roger Williams University2.095.2%1st Place
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14.44North Carolina State University0.771.2%1st Place
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13.43St. Mary's College of Maryland0.902.1%1st Place
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15.34University of Wisconsin0.170.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Ascencios | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 2.6% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 13.7% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| William Michels | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Stephan Baker | 11.0% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Scott Mais | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Whittemore | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Micky Munns | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 2.5% |
| Maks Groom | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 1.8% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 2.2% |
| Ted McDonough | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Harrison Bailey | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 22.0% | 25.6% |
| Max Kleha | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 18.6% | 15.3% |
| Phineas Tait | 0.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 17.8% | 43.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.