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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tulane University2.21+7.29vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.44+8.16vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College1.48+7.08vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.20+2.13vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.75-0.54vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.71-1.21vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.77+0.41vs Predicted
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8Boston University0.37+4.51vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston1.45-0.55vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.92-3.47vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.95-0.49vs Predicted
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12George Washington University1.32-2.35vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.65-1.48vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.18-3.95vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.65-3.06vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii0.99-5.52vs Predicted
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17University of Miami-0.46-1.60vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.39-5.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.29Tulane University2.215.9%1st Place
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10.16Tufts University1.443.8%1st Place
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10.08Bowdoin College1.483.9%1st Place
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6.13Georgetown University2.208.0%1st Place
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4.46Dartmouth College2.7515.6%1st Place
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4.79Yale University2.7115.2%1st Place
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7.41University of Pennsylvania1.777.3%1st Place
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12.51Boston University0.372.2%1st Place
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8.45College of Charleston1.455.8%1st Place
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6.53Brown University1.929.3%1st Place
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10.51Old Dominion University0.953.2%1st Place
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9.65George Washington University1.324.7%1st Place
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11.52Connecticut College0.652.8%1st Place
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10.05Northeastern University1.184.0%1st Place
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11.94Christopher Newport University0.652.1%1st Place
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10.48University of Hawaii0.993.9%1st Place
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15.4University of Miami-0.460.5%1st Place
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12.65University of Michigan0.392.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Chloe Holder | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 2.8% |
| Ellie Maus | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 2.5% |
| Piper Holthus | 8.0% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 15.6% | 15.8% | 14.1% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 15.2% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sofia Segalla | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 14.6% | 10.6% |
| Grace Squires | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Caroline Bayless | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 3.3% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Aili Moffet | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 5.9% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
| Grace Watlington | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 7.9% |
| Mercy Tangredi | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 2.5% |
| Sarah Schuringa | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 13.9% | 47.4% |
| Christiana Scheibner | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 11.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.