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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.07+6.30vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.80+6.96vs Predicted
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3Tulane University1.73+3.58vs Predicted
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4George Washington University0.96+5.67vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.72+2.66vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.55-1.85vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston1.81-0.89vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.22+0.69vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University1.37-0.87vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii1.05-0.42vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College1.87-4.73vs Predicted
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12University of Miami0.19+0.40vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.34-0.66vs Predicted
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14Tufts University0.69-3.92vs Predicted
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15Boston University-0.05-1.47vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University-0.84-3.24vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University-0.16-3.06vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan0.05-5.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.3Bowdoin College2.077.3%1st Place
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8.96Brown University1.805.0%1st Place
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6.58Tulane University1.738.9%1st Place
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9.67George Washington University0.963.8%1st Place
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7.66University of Pennsylvania1.726.8%1st Place
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4.15Yale University2.5518.6%1st Place
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6.11College of Charleston1.8110.9%1st Place
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8.69Northeastern University1.225.9%1st Place
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8.13Georgetown University1.375.4%1st Place
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9.58University of Hawaii1.054.7%1st Place
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6.27Dartmouth College1.8710.4%1st Place
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12.4University of Miami0.191.5%1st Place
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12.34Connecticut College0.342.0%1st Place
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10.08Tufts University0.693.4%1st Place
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13.53Boston University-0.051.2%1st Place
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12.76Christopher Newport University-0.841.5%1st Place
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13.94Old Dominion University-0.161.1%1st Place
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12.86University of Michigan0.051.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Caroline Benson | 8.9% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Torrey Chisari | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Emma Cowles | 18.6% | 16.0% | 14.5% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emma Tallman | 10.9% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Eva Ermlich | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Riley Kloc | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Gray Hemans | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Marina Geilen | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 11.2% |
| Hailey Pemberton | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 9.9% |
| Samantha Jensen | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| Madeline Stull | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 19.1% |
| Laura Smith | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 12.7% | 13.6% |
| Allison Volk | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 15.1% | 23.4% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 14.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.