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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston1.81+5.04vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.55+2.39vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.72+4.63vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.07+3.26vs Predicted
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5Brown University1.80+4.24vs Predicted
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6Tulane University1.73+0.43vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University1.37+1.14vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College1.87-1.68vs Predicted
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9George Washington University0.96+0.45vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.22-1.33vs Predicted
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11Tufts University0.69-0.76vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.34+0.39vs Predicted
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13University of Miami0.19-0.44vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan0.05-1.14vs Predicted
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15Boston University-0.05-1.59vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii1.05-6.52vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University-0.16-2.98vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University-0.84-5.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.04College of Charleston1.8111.6%1st Place
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4.39Yale University2.5517.4%1st Place
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7.63University of Pennsylvania1.726.6%1st Place
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7.26Bowdoin College2.077.3%1st Place
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9.24Brown University1.804.9%1st Place
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6.43Tulane University1.7310.5%1st Place
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8.14Georgetown University1.375.6%1st Place
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6.32Dartmouth College1.879.3%1st Place
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9.45George Washington University0.963.6%1st Place
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8.67Northeastern University1.225.1%1st Place
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10.24Tufts University0.693.0%1st Place
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12.39Connecticut College0.342.2%1st Place
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12.56University of Miami0.191.8%1st Place
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12.86University of Michigan0.052.0%1st Place
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13.41Boston University-0.051.4%1st Place
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9.48University of Hawaii1.053.8%1st Place
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14.02Old Dominion University-0.161.7%1st Place
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12.45Christopher Newport University-0.842.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Tallman | 11.6% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Emma Cowles | 17.4% | 15.7% | 14.5% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Caroline Benson | 10.5% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Riley Kloc | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Gray Hemans | 9.3% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Eva Ermlich | 5.1% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Samantha Jensen | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
| Hailey Pemberton | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 10.9% |
| Marina Geilen | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 11.8% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 13.4% | 14.9% |
| Madeline Stull | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 14.8% | 18.2% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| Allison Volk | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 15.6% | 24.3% |
| Laura Smith | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 11.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.