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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.55+3.23vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College1.87+4.43vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.07+4.30vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.80+5.00vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.22+3.57vs Predicted
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6George Washington University0.96+3.70vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University1.37+1.17vs Predicted
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8Tulane University1.73-1.48vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.72-1.38vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston1.81-3.77vs Predicted
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11Tufts University0.69-0.96vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.34+0.35vs Predicted
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13University of Miami0.19-0.42vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University0.27-1.72vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University-0.84-2.68vs Predicted
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16University of Hawaii1.09-6.90vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-0.64-1.75vs Predicted
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18Boston University-0.05-4.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.23Yale University2.5518.8%1st Place
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6.43Dartmouth College1.878.6%1st Place
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7.3Bowdoin College2.077.3%1st Place
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9.0Brown University1.805.9%1st Place
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8.57Northeastern University1.225.0%1st Place
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9.7George Washington University0.964.2%1st Place
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8.17Georgetown University1.375.8%1st Place
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6.52Tulane University1.738.8%1st Place
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7.62University of Pennsylvania1.725.6%1st Place
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6.23College of Charleston1.8110.8%1st Place
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10.04Tufts University0.694.2%1st Place
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12.35Connecticut College0.342.4%1st Place
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12.58University of Miami0.191.7%1st Place
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12.28Old Dominion University0.272.1%1st Place
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12.32Christopher Newport University-0.841.9%1st Place
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9.1University of Hawaii1.094.9%1st Place
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15.25University of Michigan-0.640.6%1st Place
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13.32Boston University-0.051.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Cowles | 18.8% | 17.2% | 13.7% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gray Hemans | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Eva Ermlich | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| Riley Kloc | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Caroline Benson | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Torrey Chisari | 5.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Emma Tallman | 10.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Jensen | 4.2% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Hailey Pemberton | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 9.8% |
| Marina Geilen | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 11.0% |
| Emma Friedauer | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 8.5% |
| Laura Smith | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 10.3% |
| Morgan Carew | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 0.9% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 14.9% | 39.0% |
| Madeline Stull | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 16.0% | 15.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.