← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Roger Williams University2.77+7.81vs Predicted
-
2U. S. Naval Academy3.44+4.65vs Predicted
-
3Stanford University3.90+2.18vs Predicted
-
4Brown University3.64+2.13vs Predicted
-
5University of Vermont3.41+1.58vs Predicted
-
6Boston College3.91-0.65vs Predicted
-
7Connecticut College3.71-1.22vs Predicted
-
8Roger Williams University2.98+0.06vs Predicted
-
9University of Wisconsin2.72+0.31vs Predicted
-
10SUNY Maritime College2.63-0.64vs Predicted
-
11Tufts University3.52-4.38vs Predicted
-
12Stevens Institute of Technology0.57+2.68vs Predicted
-
13Cornell University2.11-1.73vs Predicted
-
14Columbia University1.02-0.08vs Predicted
-
15Northeastern University2.34-4.63vs Predicted
-
16University of Connecticut-1.13+0.56vs Predicted
-
17Dartmouth College2.97-8.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.81Roger Williams University2.770.1%1st Place
-
6.65U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
-
5.18Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
-
6.13Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
-
6.58University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
-
5.35Boston College3.910.1%1st Place
-
5.78Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
-
8.06Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
-
9.31University of Wisconsin2.720.0%1st Place
-
9.36SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
-
6.62Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
-
14.68Stevens Institute of Technology0.570.0%1st Place
-
11.27Cornell University2.110.0%1st Place
-
13.92Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
-
10.37Northeastern University2.340.0%1st Place
-
16.56University of Connecticut-1.130.0%1st Place
-
8.36Dartmouth College2.970.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Vogel | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Popp | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 12.4% | 13.8% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Adams | 10.7% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Jermain | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Bowman | 12.1% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Draheim | 6.3% | 4.9% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Boylan | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Willem Sandberg | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Guenther | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 8.6% | 18.2% | 43.6% | 12.1% |
| Michael Rivlin | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 16.8% | 14.5% | 6.1% | 0.8% |
| John Koehler | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 10.2% | 28.8% | 29.7% | 5.8% |
| Elise Gehling | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 14.1% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| Peter Rodriguez | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 3.7% | 12.0% | 80.6% |
| Christopher Price | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.