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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.80+8.20vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.72+5.49vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College1.87+3.29vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.55+0.22vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University1.37+3.16vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston1.81+0.01vs Predicted
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7Tulane University1.73-0.39vs Predicted
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8George Washington University0.96+1.69vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.07-1.64vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College0.34+2.39vs Predicted
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11University of Hawaii1.09-1.80vs Predicted
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12Tufts University0.69-1.56vs Predicted
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13Boston University-0.05+0.17vs Predicted
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14University of Miami0.19-1.44vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.22-6.47vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University0.27-3.78vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan-0.64-1.87vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University-0.84-5.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.2Brown University1.804.7%1st Place
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7.49University of Pennsylvania1.727.3%1st Place
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6.29Dartmouth College1.879.8%1st Place
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4.22Yale University2.5518.9%1st Place
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8.16Georgetown University1.376.3%1st Place
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6.01College of Charleston1.8110.7%1st Place
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6.61Tulane University1.737.6%1st Place
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9.69George Washington University0.963.1%1st Place
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7.36Bowdoin College2.076.9%1st Place
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12.39Connecticut College0.342.5%1st Place
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9.2University of Hawaii1.094.7%1st Place
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10.44Tufts University0.693.4%1st Place
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13.17Boston University-0.051.2%1st Place
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12.56University of Miami0.191.4%1st Place
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8.53Northeastern University1.226.8%1st Place
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12.22Old Dominion University0.271.7%1st Place
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15.13University of Michigan-0.640.8%1st Place
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12.32Christopher Newport University-0.842.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaire McCarthy | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Torrey Chisari | 7.3% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Gray Hemans | 9.8% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Emma Cowles | 18.9% | 16.0% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Riley Kloc | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Emma Tallman | 10.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Caroline Benson | 7.6% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Hailey Pemberton | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 12.8% | 9.8% |
| Morgan Carew | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Samantha Jensen | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| Madeline Stull | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 14.2% | 14.8% |
| Marina Geilen | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 14.0% | 9.6% |
| Eva Ermlich | 6.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Emma Friedauer | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 9.3% |
| Katherine Simcoe | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 15.2% | 40.4% |
| Laura Smith | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 11.4% | 13.5% | 10.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.