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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.71+4.71vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.98+6.17vs Predicted
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3Tufts University3.52+3.45vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.97+4.36vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.64+0.91vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin2.72+3.28vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.90-1.74vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.41-1.35vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.77+0.13vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.44-3.40vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.11+0.14vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.63-2.60vs Predicted
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13Boston College3.91-7.73vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.34-3.50vs Predicted
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15Stevens Institute of Technology0.57-0.39vs Predicted
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16Columbia University1.02-2.05vs Predicted
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17University of Connecticut-1.13-0.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.71Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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8.17Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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6.45Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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8.36Dartmouth College2.970.1%1st Place
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5.91Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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9.28University of Wisconsin2.720.0%1st Place
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5.26Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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6.65University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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9.13Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
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6.6U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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11.14Cornell University2.110.0%1st Place
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9.4SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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5.27Boston College3.910.1%1st Place
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10.5Northeastern University2.340.0%1st Place
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14.61Stevens Institute of Technology0.570.0%1st Place
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13.95Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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16.61University of Connecticut-1.130.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic Brugman | 11.5% | 12.4% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Draheim | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Willem Sandberg | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Price | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Adams | 10.7% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Boylan | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 12.7% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Jermain | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Vogel | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Michael Popp | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Rivlin | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 16.5% | 13.6% | 7.5% | 0.6% |
| Julia Paxton | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| William Bowman | 13.3% | 12.1% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elise Gehling | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 3.1% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Guenther | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 8.3% | 17.6% | 44.0% | 12.0% |
| John Koehler | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 28.5% | 28.4% | 5.9% |
| Peter Rodriguez | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 10.8% | 81.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.