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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.97+7.11vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College3.71+3.69vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.64+3.03vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.91+1.33vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.77+3.79vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.52+0.65vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont3.41-0.25vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.90-2.78vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.34+1.53vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy3.44-3.41vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.98-2.66vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin2.72-2.91vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.63-3.45vs Predicted
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14Columbia University1.02-0.07vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.11-3.90vs Predicted
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16University of Connecticut-1.13+0.56vs Predicted
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17Stevens Institute of Technology0.57-2.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.11Dartmouth College2.970.1%1st Place
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5.69Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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6.03Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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5.33Boston College3.910.1%1st Place
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8.79Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
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6.65Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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6.75University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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5.22Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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10.53Northeastern University2.340.0%1st Place
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6.59U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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8.34Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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9.09University of Wisconsin2.720.0%1st Place
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9.55SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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13.93Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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11.1Cornell University2.110.0%1st Place
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16.56University of Connecticut-1.130.0%1st Place
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14.75Stevens Institute of Technology0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Price | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 11.4% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Adams | 9.6% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Bowman | 13.4% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Henry Vogel | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Willem Sandberg | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nate Jermain | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 13.2% | 13.7% | 13.4% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elise Gehling | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 13.8% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 0.2% |
| Michael Popp | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Draheim | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Boylan | 4.5% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Julia Paxton | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| John Koehler | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 11.6% | 26.2% | 30.5% | 5.9% |
| Michael Rivlin | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 16.9% | 15.3% | 5.6% | 0.2% |
| Peter Rodriguez | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 3.6% | 12.3% | 80.1% |
| Matthew Guenther | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 7.7% | 20.1% | 41.5% | 13.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.