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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.97+7.13vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.77+6.98vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.90+2.22vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.44+2.76vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.64+0.95vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.98+2.47vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont3.41-0.27vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.52-1.68vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.63+0.67vs Predicted
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10Boston College3.91-4.85vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College3.71-5.02vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.34-1.63vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin2.72-3.69vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.11-2.68vs Predicted
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15Columbia University1.02-1.05vs Predicted
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16University of Connecticut0.07-0.26vs Predicted
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17Stevens Institute of Technology0.57-2.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.13Dartmouth College2.970.1%1st Place
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8.98Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
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5.22Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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6.76U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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5.95Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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8.47Roger Williams University2.980.0%1st Place
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6.73University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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6.32Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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9.67SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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5.15Boston College3.910.1%1st Place
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5.98Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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10.37Northeastern University2.340.0%1st Place
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9.31University of Wisconsin2.720.0%1st Place
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11.32Cornell University2.110.0%1st Place
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13.95Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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15.74University of Connecticut0.070.0%1st Place
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14.97Stevens Institute of Technology0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Price | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Henry Vogel | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 12.8% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Popp | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Adams | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Draheim | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Jermain | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Willem Sandberg | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| William Bowman | 12.2% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 11.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elise Gehling | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 3.9% | 0.6% |
| Brendan Boylan | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
| Michael Rivlin | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 15.6% | 14.4% | 7.2% | 1.6% |
| John Koehler | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 9.9% | 21.4% | 26.4% | 15.1% |
| Lyndsay Stockwell | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 11.6% | 22.0% | 52.8% |
| Matthew Guenther | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 15.8% | 31.9% | 29.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.