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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Wisconsin2.72+7.94vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.44+4.63vs Predicted
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3Boston College3.91+2.27vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College3.71+1.91vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.52+1.35vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.97+2.53vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.90-1.81vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.11+2.94vs Predicted
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9Columbia University1.02+5.18vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont3.41-3.33vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University2.77-1.82vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.34-1.53vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.98-4.60vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.64-7.84vs Predicted
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15Stevens Institute of Technology0.57-0.13vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.63-6.43vs Predicted
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17University of Connecticut0.07-1.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.94University of Wisconsin2.720.0%1st Place
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6.63U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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5.27Boston College3.910.1%1st Place
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5.91Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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6.35Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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8.53Dartmouth College2.970.0%1st Place
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5.19Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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10.94Cornell University2.110.0%1st Place
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14.18Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
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6.67University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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9.18Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
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10.47Northeastern University2.340.0%1st Place
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8.4Roger Williams University2.980.1%1st Place
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6.16Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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14.87Stevens Institute of Technology0.570.0%1st Place
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9.57SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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15.73University of Connecticut0.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Boylan | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Michael Popp | 8.7% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Bowman | 12.2% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 11.1% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Willem Sandberg | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Price | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 11.7% | 12.8% | 12.5% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Rivlin | 3.0% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 12.2% | 16.3% | 11.9% | 7.7% | 1.1% |
| John Koehler | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 8.9% | 24.5% | 26.9% | 15.4% |
| Nate Jermain | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Henry Vogel | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Elise Gehling | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 11.6% | 4.6% | 0.6% |
| Stewart Draheim | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Adams | 10.1% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Guenther | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 16.7% | 29.6% | 29.7% |
| Julia Paxton | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Lyndsay Stockwell | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 10.8% | 22.6% | 52.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.