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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.90+4.08vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.44+4.63vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College3.71+2.81vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.91+1.32vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College2.63+4.35vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.52+0.60vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin2.72+2.26vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.97+0.15vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont3.41-2.05vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.64-4.02vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.34-0.45vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.98-3.80vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.77-3.90vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.11-2.71vs Predicted
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15University of Connecticut0.07+0.61vs Predicted
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16Stevens Institute of Technology0.57-1.02vs Predicted
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17Columbia University1.02-2.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.08Stanford University3.900.2%1st Place
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6.63U. S. Naval Academy3.440.1%1st Place
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5.81Connecticut College3.710.1%1st Place
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5.32Boston College3.910.1%1st Place
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9.35SUNY Maritime College2.630.0%1st Place
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6.6Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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9.26University of Wisconsin2.720.0%1st Place
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8.15Dartmouth College2.970.1%1st Place
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6.95University of Vermont3.410.1%1st Place
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5.98Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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10.55Northeastern University2.340.0%1st Place
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8.2Roger Williams University2.980.0%1st Place
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9.1Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
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11.29Cornell University2.110.0%1st Place
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15.61University of Connecticut0.070.0%1st Place
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14.98Stevens Institute of Technology0.570.0%1st Place
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14.13Columbia University1.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Vargas | 15.1% | 13.1% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Popp | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Atlantic Brugman | 10.6% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Bowman | 13.1% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Paxton | 2.9% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Willem Sandberg | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Boylan | 4.3% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Price | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nate Jermain | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Adams | 9.5% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Elise Gehling | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 11.8% | 14.8% | 10.1% | 5.3% | 1.1% |
| Stewart Draheim | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Henry Vogel | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Michael Rivlin | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 17.1% | 14.2% | 6.7% | 1.5% |
| Lyndsay Stockwell | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 11.0% | 22.5% | 51.1% |
| Matthew Guenther | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 16.2% | 31.3% | 29.0% |
| John Koehler | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 21.6% | 26.6% | 16.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.