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📊 Prediction Accuracy
75.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
8
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.39+0.69vs Predicted
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2Boston University2.12+1.08vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College1.72+0.63vs Predicted
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4Middlebury College1.85-0.52vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.99-1.36vs Predicted
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8Williams College0.22-2.28vs Predicted
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9Wesleyan University-1.06-1.85vs Predicted
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10Wesleyan University-0.57-3.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.69Dartmouth College3.390.6%1st Place
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3.08Boston University2.120.1%1st Place
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3.63Dartmouth College1.720.1%1st Place
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3.48Middlebury College1.850.1%1st Place
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4.64Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.990.0%1st Place
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5.72Williams College0.220.0%1st Place
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7.15Wesleyan University-1.060.0%1st Place
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6.61Wesleyan University-0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Johnstone | 56.1% | 25.9% | 12.8% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alejandro Bancalari | 14.0% | 25.5% | 22.6% | 20.8% | 11.4% | 4.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Gallagher | 10.0% | 16.6% | 20.4% | 22.5% | 18.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Dragone | 11.1% | 18.3% | 20.7% | 23.5% | 16.6% | 7.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| Priscilla Stoll | 4.6% | 7.5% | 13.0% | 16.4% | 24.3% | 22.9% | 9.2% | 2.1% |
| Joshua Revkin | 2.5% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 16.4% | 29.5% | 25.0% | 10.1% |
| Chase Hochman | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 9.3% | 22.0% | 58.2% |
| Elaine Maskus | 0.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 7.0% | 17.4% | 37.2% | 29.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.