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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.39+0.78vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College1.72+2.16vs Predicted
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3University of New Hampshire1.04+2.12vs Predicted
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4Middlebury College1.85-0.35vs Predicted
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6Boston University2.12-2.73vs Predicted
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7Williams College0.22-0.64vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.99-2.82vs Predicted
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9Wesleyan University-0.57-1.53vs Predicted
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11Wesleyan University-1.06-2.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.78Dartmouth College3.390.5%1st Place
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4.16Dartmouth College1.720.1%1st Place
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5.12University of New Hampshire1.040.0%1st Place
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3.65Middlebury College1.850.1%1st Place
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3.27Boston University2.120.2%1st Place
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6.36Williams College0.220.0%1st Place
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5.18Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.990.0%1st Place
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7.47Wesleyan University-0.570.0%1st Place
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8.01Wesleyan University-1.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Johnstone | 52.7% | 26.9% | 12.9% | 5.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Gallagher | 6.4% | 13.0% | 19.2% | 19.8% | 17.6% | 13.2% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 0.2% |
| Ann Sager | 4.2% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 14.6% | 15.8% | 22.2% | 17.6% | 6.5% | 2.0% |
| Nicholas Dragone | 11.9% | 16.8% | 20.5% | 19.9% | 14.2% | 11.1% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Alejandro Bancalari | 16.3% | 23.0% | 20.1% | 15.8% | 12.7% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Revkin | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 27.5% | 22.3% | 9.1% |
| Priscilla Stoll | 4.6% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 19.9% | 21.4% | 16.4% | 7.8% | 2.3% |
| Elaine Maskus | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 14.3% | 35.1% | 30.7% |
| Chase Hochman | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 9.2% | 23.0% | 55.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.