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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.23+4.49vs Predicted
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2Boston University3.00+4.09vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.72+4.05vs Predicted
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4Boston College3.55+0.65vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.70+2.24vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.18-0.36vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island2.19+1.71vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.70-0.84vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.64-4.68vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.36-1.69vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University1.17-0.44vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont2.03-3.49vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University2.29-5.33vs Predicted
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15Wesleyan University1.45-4.16vs Predicted
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16Columbia University-1.73-1.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.49Connecticut College3.230.1%1st Place
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6.09Boston University3.000.1%1st Place
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7.05Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.720.1%1st Place
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4.65Boston College3.550.2%1st Place
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7.24Harvard University2.700.1%1st Place
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5.64Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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8.71University of Rhode Island2.190.1%1st Place
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7.16Tufts University2.700.1%1st Place
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4.32Brown University3.640.2%1st Place
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8.31Northeastern University2.360.0%1st Place
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11.56Roger Williams University1.170.0%1st Place
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9.51University of Vermont2.030.0%1st Place
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8.67Salve Regina University2.290.0%1st Place
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10.84Wesleyan University1.450.0%1st Place
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14.77Columbia University-1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Kopp | 11.0% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Cameron Fraser | 8.4% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Paggi | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Mullins | 15.8% | 15.1% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke O'Connor | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| John Renehan | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Penwell | 5.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 0.6% |
| Charles Proctor | 6.8% | 5.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Lucas Adams | 15.5% | 16.7% | 14.3% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jesse Thomas | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 4.7% | 0.3% |
| Jack Hunger | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 17.5% | 35.9% | 3.9% |
| John Duncan | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 14.2% | 10.8% | 0.4% |
| Christopher Jensen | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 0.2% |
| Lewis Fowler-Gerace | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 19.5% | 24.0% | 1.9% |
| James Price | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 3.8% | 92.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.