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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+4.63vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University1.17+9.40vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.70+4.09vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.70+3.21vs Predicted
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5Wesleyan University1.45+5.82vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College3.23-0.50vs Predicted
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7Boston University3.00-0.77vs Predicted
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8Boston College3.55-3.40vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.64-4.68vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.72-2.79vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University2.29-2.46vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.03-2.47vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University2.36-5.54vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island2.19-6.32vs Predicted
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16Columbia University-1.73-1.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.63Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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11.4Roger Williams University1.170.0%1st Place
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7.09Harvard University2.700.1%1st Place
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7.21Tufts University2.700.1%1st Place
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10.82Wesleyan University1.450.0%1st Place
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5.5Connecticut College3.230.1%1st Place
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6.23Boston University3.000.1%1st Place
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4.6Boston College3.550.2%1st Place
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4.32Brown University3.640.2%1st Place
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7.21Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.720.1%1st Place
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8.54Salve Regina University2.290.0%1st Place
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9.53University of Vermont2.030.0%1st Place
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8.46Northeastern University2.360.0%1st Place
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8.68University of Rhode Island2.190.0%1st Place
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14.78Columbia University-1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Renehan | 11.1% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Jack Hunger | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 12.0% | 16.3% | 33.1% | 3.7% |
| Luke O'Connor | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Charles Proctor | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| Lewis Fowler-Gerace | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 11.1% | 18.5% | 26.7% | 2.0% |
| Bryce Kopp | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Fraser | 10.2% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Mullins | 15.1% | 15.6% | 13.6% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Adams | 17.0% | 16.0% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Paggi | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Jensen | 3.1% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 0.9% |
| John Duncan | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 12.0% | 15.6% | 10.6% | 0.3% |
| Jesse Thomas | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 10.5% | 4.7% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Penwell | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 0.1% |
| James Price | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 3.7% | 92.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.