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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.64+3.29vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.72+4.98vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College3.23+2.42vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.18+1.63vs Predicted
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5Boston College3.55-0.27vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.70+1.24vs Predicted
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7Boston University3.00-0.83vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University2.29+0.49vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont2.03+0.23vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.70-2.73vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.36-2.78vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island2.19-2.98vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University1.17-2.33vs Predicted
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15Wesleyan University1.45-4.14vs Predicted
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16Columbia University-1.73-1.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.29Brown University3.640.2%1st Place
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6.98Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.720.1%1st Place
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5.42Connecticut College3.230.1%1st Place
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5.63Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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4.73Boston College3.550.1%1st Place
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7.24Harvard University2.700.1%1st Place
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6.17Boston University3.000.1%1st Place
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8.49Salve Regina University2.290.0%1st Place
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9.23University of Vermont2.030.0%1st Place
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7.27Tufts University2.700.1%1st Place
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8.22Northeastern University2.360.0%1st Place
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9.02University of Rhode Island2.190.0%1st Place
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11.67Roger Williams University1.170.0%1st Place
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10.86Wesleyan University1.450.0%1st Place
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14.77Columbia University-1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Adams | 17.9% | 17.5% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Paggi | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Bryce Kopp | 11.8% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| John Renehan | 11.3% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Mullins | 14.6% | 14.0% | 11.5% | 13.6% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke O'Connor | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Cameron Fraser | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Jensen | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 0.6% |
| John Duncan | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 8.3% | 0.7% |
| Charles Proctor | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Jesse Thomas | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 5.0% | 0.6% |
| Patrick Penwell | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 0.3% |
| Jack Hunger | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 16.7% | 39.1% | 3.0% |
| Lewis Fowler-Gerace | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 19.1% | 23.7% | 2.0% |
| James Price | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 3.7% | 92.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.