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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
5.0
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.06+6.67vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.72+8.08vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.54+7.83vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.12+5.18vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.59+5.48vs Predicted
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6Boston University0.97+5.96vs Predicted
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7Boston College1.97+1.10vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University1.49+2.43vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+3.45vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09+1.10vs Predicted
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11Brown University1.25+0.02vs Predicted
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12Harvard University2.48-6.00vs Predicted
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13Yale University1.90-4.34vs Predicted
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14Fairfield University0.73-0.71vs Predicted
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15Yale University2.85-10.18vs Predicted
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16Salve Regina University0.46-2.83vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University2.09-9.46vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island1.05-5.79vs Predicted
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19Roger Williams University1.58-7.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.67Bowdoin College2.067.7%1st Place
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10.08Brown University1.724.9%1st Place
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10.83Tufts University1.544.2%1st Place
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9.18Harvard University2.124.0%1st Place
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10.48Northeastern University1.594.8%1st Place
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11.96Boston University0.972.8%1st Place
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8.1Boston College1.977.4%1st Place
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10.43Northwestern University1.493.6%1st Place
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12.45U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.082.8%1st Place
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11.1U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.093.4%1st Place
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11.02Brown University1.253.7%1st Place
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6.0Harvard University2.4811.0%1st Place
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8.66Yale University1.906.2%1st Place
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13.29Fairfield University0.732.2%1st Place
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4.82Yale University2.8516.2%1st Place
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13.17Salve Regina University0.461.8%1st Place
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7.54Roger Williams University2.097.0%1st Place
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12.21University of Rhode Island1.052.8%1st Place
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11.02Roger Williams University1.583.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bonauto | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Jed Bell | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 2.9% |
| Bryan Trammell | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 9.4% |
| Peter Joslin | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Shea Smith | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.6% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 12.0% |
| Jack Derry | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% |
| William George | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 4.8% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 11.0% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Sih | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 15.8% |
| Stephan Baker | 16.2% | 14.6% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Emil Tullberg | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 16.4% |
| Oliver Stokke | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Olin Guck | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 10.2% |
| George Higham | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.