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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+3.70vs Predicted
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2Boston University0.97+10.24vs Predicted
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3Fairfield University0.73+10.11vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+8.67vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.59+5.58vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.06+1.57vs Predicted
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7Brown University1.72+3.17vs Predicted
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8Boston College1.97+0.11vs Predicted
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9Yale University1.90-0.38vs Predicted
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10Harvard University2.48-3.94vs Predicted
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11Brown University1.25+0.06vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.54-1.10vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island1.05-1.25vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University1.58-3.11vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.09-7.48vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University1.49-5.55vs Predicted
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17Salve Regina University0.46-3.57vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09-6.92vs Predicted
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19Harvard University2.12-9.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.7Yale University2.8516.8%1st Place
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12.24Boston University0.972.9%1st Place
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13.11Fairfield University0.731.9%1st Place
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12.67U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.083.1%1st Place
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10.58Northeastern University1.594.2%1st Place
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7.57Bowdoin College2.067.3%1st Place
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10.17Brown University1.724.2%1st Place
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8.11Boston College1.976.8%1st Place
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8.62Yale University1.906.2%1st Place
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6.06Harvard University2.4810.0%1st Place
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11.06Brown University1.253.5%1st Place
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10.9Tufts University1.542.9%1st Place
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11.75University of Rhode Island1.052.6%1st Place
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10.89Roger Williams University1.584.2%1st Place
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7.52Roger Williams University2.098.4%1st Place
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10.45Northwestern University1.493.9%1st Place
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13.43Salve Regina University0.462.4%1st Place
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11.08U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.092.7%1st Place
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9.09Harvard University2.126.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 16.8% | 13.5% | 14.4% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 10.4% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 17.0% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 12.2% | 11.6% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.5% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Jed Bell | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% |
| Peter Joslin | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Nathan Sih | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 10.0% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| William George | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.3% |
| Bryan Trammell | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% |
| Olin Guck | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 9.1% |
| George Higham | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Oliver Stokke | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Shea Smith | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.1% |
| Emil Tullberg | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 18.5% |
| Jack Derry | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.7% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.