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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.06+6.68vs Predicted
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2Harvard University2.48+4.14vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.85+1.85vs Predicted
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4Yale University1.90+4.56vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.54+5.80vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University1.58+4.92vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.59+3.67vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University1.49+2.36vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.09-1.56vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.72+0.05vs Predicted
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11Harvard University2.12-2.07vs Predicted
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12Fairfield University0.73+0.93vs Predicted
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13Boston University0.97-0.93vs Predicted
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14Boston College1.97-5.89vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University0.46-1.81vs Predicted
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16Brown University1.25-4.80vs Predicted
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17University of Rhode Island1.05-4.93vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-5.26vs Predicted
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19U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09-7.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.68Bowdoin College2.067.3%1st Place
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6.14Harvard University2.4810.7%1st Place
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4.85Yale University2.8516.5%1st Place
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8.56Yale University1.906.5%1st Place
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10.8Tufts University1.543.8%1st Place
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10.92Roger Williams University1.583.2%1st Place
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10.67Northeastern University1.593.2%1st Place
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10.36Northwestern University1.494.1%1st Place
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7.44Roger Williams University2.097.4%1st Place
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10.05Brown University1.725.3%1st Place
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8.93Harvard University2.126.3%1st Place
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12.93Fairfield University0.732.1%1st Place
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12.07Boston University0.972.8%1st Place
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8.11Boston College1.976.8%1st Place
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13.19Salve Regina University0.461.6%1st Place
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11.2Brown University1.253.1%1st Place
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12.07University of Rhode Island1.052.9%1st Place
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12.74U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.083.0%1st Place
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11.28U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.093.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bonauto | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Stephan Baker | 16.5% | 13.5% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Sih | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| Bryan Trammell | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% |
| George Higham | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% |
| Shea Smith | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% |
| Oliver Stokke | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Jed Bell | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 2.9% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 14.2% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.2% |
| Peter Joslin | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Emil Tullberg | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 16.4% |
| William George | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% |
| Olin Guck | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.7% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 13.5% |
| Jack Derry | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.