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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+3.81vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.09+5.62vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.54+7.89vs Predicted
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4Northwestern University1.49+6.12vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.06+2.54vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+6.41vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.12+2.10vs Predicted
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8Boston College1.97+0.19vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.59+1.55vs Predicted
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10Fairfield University0.73+3.26vs Predicted
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11Brown University1.72-0.73vs Predicted
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12Yale University1.90-3.48vs Predicted
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13Harvard University2.48-7.01vs Predicted
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14Boston University0.97-1.59vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University0.46-1.72vs Predicted
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16University of Rhode Island1.05-4.05vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09-5.73vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University1.58-7.14vs Predicted
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19Brown University1.25-8.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.81Yale University2.8516.4%1st Place
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7.62Roger Williams University2.098.9%1st Place
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10.89Tufts University1.543.9%1st Place
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10.12Northwestern University1.494.0%1st Place
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7.54Bowdoin College2.066.8%1st Place
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12.41U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.082.0%1st Place
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9.1Harvard University2.125.6%1st Place
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8.19Boston College1.977.4%1st Place
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10.55Northeastern University1.593.6%1st Place
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13.26Fairfield University0.731.9%1st Place
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10.27Brown University1.723.5%1st Place
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8.52Yale University1.906.9%1st Place
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5.99Harvard University2.4811.6%1st Place
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12.41Boston University0.972.4%1st Place
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13.28Salve Regina University0.461.9%1st Place
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11.95University of Rhode Island1.052.5%1st Place
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11.27U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.093.6%1st Place
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10.86Roger Williams University1.583.5%1st Place
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10.95Brown University1.253.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 16.4% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Bryan Trammell | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% |
| Shea Smith | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.5% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 11.3% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Peter Joslin | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 16.2% |
| Jed Bell | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% |
| Nathan Sih | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 11.6% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.6% |
| Emil Tullberg | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 16.9% |
| Olin Guck | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.1% |
| Jack Derry | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 5.3% |
| George Higham | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% |
| William George | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.