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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+3.91vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.09+5.54vs Predicted
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3Boston College1.97+4.94vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+8.63vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.48+1.01vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.12+3.03vs Predicted
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7Boston University0.97+5.14vs Predicted
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8Yale University1.90+0.57vs Predicted
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9Fairfield University0.73+3.99vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University1.49+0.50vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.06-3.39vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University0.46+1.24vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09-1.92vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.59-3.36vs Predicted
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15Brown University1.72-4.77vs Predicted
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16Brown University1.25-4.86vs Predicted
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17Tufts University1.54-6.00vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University1.58-7.21vs Predicted
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19University of Rhode Island1.05-6.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.91Yale University2.8516.4%1st Place
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7.54Roger Williams University2.098.2%1st Place
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7.94Boston College1.977.3%1st Place
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12.63U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.082.6%1st Place
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6.01Harvard University2.4811.8%1st Place
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9.03Harvard University2.125.2%1st Place
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12.14Boston University0.973.0%1st Place
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8.57Yale University1.905.8%1st Place
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12.99Fairfield University0.732.4%1st Place
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10.5Northwestern University1.493.5%1st Place
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7.61Bowdoin College2.067.7%1st Place
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13.24Salve Regina University0.461.8%1st Place
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11.08U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.093.5%1st Place
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10.64Northeastern University1.593.6%1st Place
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10.23Brown University1.724.2%1st Place
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11.14Brown University1.253.6%1st Place
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11.0Tufts University1.543.5%1st Place
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10.79Roger Williams University1.583.5%1st Place
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12.03University of Rhode Island1.052.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 16.4% | 13.3% | 14.1% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 8.2% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| Peter Joslin | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 11.5% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 11.8% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.8% |
| Nathan Sih | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 17.5% |
| Shea Smith | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Emil Tullberg | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 16.2% |
| Jack Derry | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% |
| Jed Bell | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.4% |
| William George | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 4.8% |
| Bryan Trammell | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.1% |
| George Higham | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% |
| Olin Guck | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 10.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.