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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+3.90vs Predicted
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2Yale University1.90+6.54vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.48+2.95vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.09+3.46vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.06+2.62vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.54+4.71vs Predicted
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7Fairfield University0.73+6.29vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.25+2.88vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University1.58+1.94vs Predicted
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10Northwestern University1.49+0.68vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.05+1.01vs Predicted
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12Boston University0.97+0.13vs Predicted
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13Harvard University2.12-3.86vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University0.46-0.60vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.59-4.45vs Predicted
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16Boston College1.97-7.87vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-4.72vs Predicted
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18Brown University1.72-7.76vs Predicted
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19U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09-7.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.9Yale University2.8515.9%1st Place
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8.54Yale University1.906.9%1st Place
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5.95Harvard University2.4811.3%1st Place
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7.46Roger Williams University2.098.7%1st Place
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7.62Bowdoin College2.068.1%1st Place
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10.71Tufts University1.543.5%1st Place
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13.29Fairfield University0.731.4%1st Place
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10.88Brown University1.253.1%1st Place
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10.94Roger Williams University1.584.0%1st Place
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10.68Northwestern University1.494.1%1st Place
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12.01University of Rhode Island1.053.0%1st Place
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12.13Boston University0.972.2%1st Place
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9.14Harvard University2.125.0%1st Place
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13.4Salve Regina University0.461.5%1st Place
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10.55Northeastern University1.594.3%1st Place
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8.13Boston College1.976.9%1st Place
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12.28U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.082.8%1st Place
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10.24Brown University1.723.5%1st Place
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11.14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.093.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 15.9% | 15.2% | 12.0% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Sih | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 11.3% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Oliver Stokke | 8.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Sam Bonauto | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Bryan Trammell | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 16.6% |
| William George | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% |
| George Higham | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.3% |
| Shea Smith | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.2% |
| Olin Guck | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 10.7% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 10.0% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% |
| Emil Tullberg | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 17.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.3% |
| Peter Joslin | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 10.4% |
| Jed Bell | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.0% |
| Jack Derry | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.