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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.23+4.47vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.64+2.32vs Predicted
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3Boston University3.00+3.22vs Predicted
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4Salve Regina University2.29+4.55vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.18+0.84vs Predicted
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6Tufts University2.70+1.27vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.55-2.37vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.72-0.83vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.70-1.83vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University2.36-1.58vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont2.03-1.59vs Predicted
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12Wesleyan University1.87-1.92vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.19-3.95vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University1.17-3.38vs Predicted
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16Columbia University-1.73-1.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.47Connecticut College3.230.1%1st Place
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4.32Brown University3.640.2%1st Place
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6.22Boston University3.000.1%1st Place
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8.55Salve Regina University2.290.0%1st Place
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5.84Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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7.27Tufts University2.700.1%1st Place
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4.63Boston College3.550.1%1st Place
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7.17Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.720.1%1st Place
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7.17Harvard University2.700.1%1st Place
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8.42Northeastern University2.360.0%1st Place
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9.41University of Vermont2.030.0%1st Place
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10.08Wesleyan University1.870.0%1st Place
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9.05University of Rhode Island2.190.0%1st Place
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11.62Roger Williams University1.170.0%1st Place
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14.79Columbia University-1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Kopp | 12.3% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Adams | 17.3% | 16.4% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Fraser | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Jensen | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 6.2% | 0.3% |
| John Renehan | 10.2% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Charles Proctor | 5.4% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Mullins | 15.0% | 14.9% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Paggi | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Luke O'Connor | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Jesse Thomas | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 0.3% |
| John Duncan | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 15.4% | 11.1% | 1.1% |
| Brooke Baker | 2.8% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 14.5% | 18.2% | 0.5% |
| Patrick Penwell | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 0.3% |
| Jack Hunger | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 14.4% | 39.3% | 3.2% |
| James Price | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 3.0% | 93.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.