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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.06+6.52vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.85+2.85vs Predicted
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3Harvard University2.12+6.09vs Predicted
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4Boston College1.97+4.14vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University1.58+6.09vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.54+4.87vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.09+0.41vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.72+2.26vs Predicted
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9Yale University1.90-0.50vs Predicted
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10Harvard University2.48-4.11vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University0.46+2.18vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.59-1.44vs Predicted
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13Fairfield University0.73+0.11vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09-2.79vs Predicted
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15Boston University0.97-2.91vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University1.49-5.45vs Predicted
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17Brown University1.25-5.87vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island1.05-5.96vs Predicted
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19U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-6.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.52Bowdoin College2.067.1%1st Place
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4.85Yale University2.8516.9%1st Place
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9.09Harvard University2.125.2%1st Place
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8.14Boston College1.977.8%1st Place
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11.09Roger Williams University1.583.5%1st Place
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10.87Tufts University1.543.5%1st Place
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7.41Roger Williams University2.098.9%1st Place
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10.26Brown University1.724.0%1st Place
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8.5Yale University1.905.5%1st Place
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5.89Harvard University2.4811.7%1st Place
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13.18Salve Regina University0.461.4%1st Place
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10.56Northeastern University1.593.4%1st Place
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13.11Fairfield University0.732.3%1st Place
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11.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.093.0%1st Place
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12.09Boston University0.973.0%1st Place
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10.55Northwestern University1.494.1%1st Place
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11.13Brown University1.253.6%1st Place
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12.04University of Rhode Island1.052.5%1st Place
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12.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.082.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bonauto | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Stephan Baker | 16.9% | 14.4% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Peter Joslin | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| George Higham | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.2% |
| Bryan Trammell | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% |
| Oliver Stokke | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Jed Bell | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% |
| Nathan Sih | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 11.7% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Emil Tullberg | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 16.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 15.7% |
| Jack Derry | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 10.8% |
| Shea Smith | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.3% |
| William George | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.2% |
| Olin Guck | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 12.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.