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📊 Prediction Accuracy
15.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.6
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.72+9.31vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.54+9.14vs Predicted
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3Northwestern University1.49+7.38vs Predicted
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4Harvard University2.48+2.23vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.09+2.52vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09+5.16vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.12+2.22vs Predicted
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8Boston College1.97+0.22vs Predicted
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9Yale University1.90-0.34vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+2.71vs Predicted
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11Fairfield University0.73+2.30vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.85-7.01vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University0.46+0.61vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.65-4.46vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island1.05-2.85vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University1.59-5.41vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University1.58-5.62vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College2.06-10.50vs Predicted
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19Brown University1.25-7.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.31Brown University1.724.3%1st Place
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11.14Tufts University1.542.8%1st Place
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10.38Northwestern University1.494.3%1st Place
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6.23Harvard University2.4810.5%1st Place
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7.52Roger Williams University2.099.1%1st Place
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11.16U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.094.0%1st Place
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9.22Harvard University2.125.0%1st Place
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8.22Boston College1.976.3%1st Place
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8.66Yale University1.906.9%1st Place
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12.71U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.082.5%1st Place
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13.3Fairfield University0.732.0%1st Place
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4.99Yale University2.8515.4%1st Place
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13.61Salve Regina University0.461.7%1st Place
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9.54Boston University1.654.8%1st Place
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12.15University of Rhode Island1.052.9%1st Place
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10.59Northeastern University1.593.5%1st Place
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11.38Roger Williams University1.584.0%1st Place
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7.5Bowdoin College2.067.1%1st Place
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11.39Brown University1.253.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jed Bell | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.0% |
| Bryan Trammell | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.1% |
| Shea Smith | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 3.5% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 10.5% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Oliver Stokke | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Jack Derry | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% |
| Dylan Ascencios | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Peter Joslin | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Nathan Sih | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 13.2% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 12.3% | 16.9% |
| Stephan Baker | 15.4% | 14.3% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emil Tullberg | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 19.1% |
| Micky Munns | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% |
| Olin Guck | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.4% |
| George Higham | 4.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| William George | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.