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📊 Prediction Accuracy
36.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University1.47+9.87vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.43+8.28vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.40+3.33vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.67+4.63vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.73+0.26vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.42+4.49vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.14+4.37vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.68-2.73vs Predicted
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9Yale University1.70+0.17vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.82-1.00vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.02-3.37vs Predicted
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12Harvard University1.55-1.39vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University0.97+0.83vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40-3.79vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University0.73-1.85vs Predicted
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16Fairfield University0.42-1.64vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College1.18-5.40vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.85-5.16vs Predicted
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19Harvard University1.79-9.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.87Yale University1.473.4%1st Place
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10.28Tufts University1.433.8%1st Place
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6.33Roger Williams University2.4010.2%1st Place
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8.63Tufts University1.676.6%1st Place
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5.26Brown University2.7313.2%1st Place
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10.49University of Rhode Island1.423.7%1st Place
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11.37Boston University1.142.9%1st Place
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5.27Roger Williams University2.6813.5%1st Place
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9.17Yale University1.705.8%1st Place
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9.0Brown University1.825.2%1st Place
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7.63Boston College2.027.3%1st Place
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10.61Harvard University1.554.2%1st Place
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13.83Salve Regina University0.971.2%1st Place
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10.21U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.404.6%1st Place
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13.15Northeastern University0.732.4%1st Place
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14.36Fairfield University0.421.6%1st Place
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11.6Bowdoin College1.183.2%1st Place
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12.84U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.852.3%1st Place
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9.11Harvard University1.795.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Tobin | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% |
| Jack Flores | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.2% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Guthrie Braun | 13.2% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nash | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 2.6% |
| Tiare Sierra | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% |
| Carlos de Castro | 13.5% | 14.4% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Alex Adams | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Thomas Styron | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Jack Redmond | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Eric Hansen | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 18.6% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% |
| Liam Lawless | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 15.8% |
| Nolan Cooper | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 15.4% | 22.4% |
| Ethan Danielson | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 4.8% |
| Julia Conneely | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 11.9% |
| Marbella Marlo | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.