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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+3.19vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia3.54+3.37vs Predicted
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3George Washington University2.84+4.57vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.93+2.99vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.79+2.50vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University3.77-1.48vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.73+0.71vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+0.10vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.92-1.95vs Predicted
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10Cornell University3.35-4.10vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University1.67+0.26vs Predicted
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12William and Mary1.27+0.60vs Predicted
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13Drexel University1.52-1.57vs Predicted
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14Hampton University1.86-3.70vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.39-2.98vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.13-0.99vs Predicted
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17University of Maryland-0.39-1.18vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-2.62-0.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.19St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.2%1st Place
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5.37University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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7.57George Washington University2.840.1%1st Place
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6.99University of Vermont2.930.1%1st Place
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7.5U. S. Naval Academy2.790.1%1st Place
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4.52Georgetown University3.770.1%1st Place
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7.71Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
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8.1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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7.05Old Dominion University2.920.1%1st Place
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5.9Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
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11.26Christopher Newport University1.670.0%1st Place
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12.6William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
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11.43Drexel University1.520.0%1st Place
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10.3Hampton University1.860.0%1st Place
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12.02SUNY Maritime College1.390.0%1st Place
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15.01Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
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15.82University of Maryland-0.390.0%1st Place
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17.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-2.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 17.9% | 16.6% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 10.0% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Ricketson | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Allsopp | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Campbell | 14.8% | 15.4% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 6.0% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Cotta | 5.0% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Zach Runci | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Turner | 10.9% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Myers | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 6.8% | 2.4% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Conway | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 13.6% | 17.9% | 15.8% | 5.0% | 0.7% |
| Andrew Bergan | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 14.6% | 14.8% | 8.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Shane Horsford | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Walker | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 12.0% | 15.1% | 15.0% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 0.1% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 15.2% | 27.0% | 29.6% | 3.9% |
| Scott Gilson | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 7.4% | 21.0% | 47.8% | 8.4% |
| Aaron Gracely | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 7.8% | 86.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.