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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College4.01+2.91vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.71+5.78vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.98+4.00vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61+4.26vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.74-0.20vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.23+0.21vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont1.58+4.41vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.73-0.10vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.75-1.19vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.59-1.52vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.34-1.74vs Predicted
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13Harvard University2.53-4.17vs Predicted
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14Boston University2.74-5.88vs Predicted
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15Brown University3.01-8.12vs Predicted
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16Middlebury College0.67-2.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.91Boston College4.010.2%1st Place
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7.78Roger Williams University2.710.1%1st Place
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7.0Tufts University2.980.1%1st Place
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8.26U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.0%1st Place
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4.8Yale University3.740.2%1st Place
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6.21Dartmouth College3.230.1%1st Place
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11.41University of Vermont1.580.0%1st Place
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7.9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.730.1%1st Place
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7.81Connecticut College2.750.0%1st Place
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8.48University of Rhode Island2.590.0%1st Place
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9.26Northeastern University2.340.0%1st Place
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8.83Harvard University2.530.0%1st Place
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8.12Boston University2.740.1%1st Place
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6.88Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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13.37Middlebury College0.670.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erika Reineke | 20.6% | 20.7% | 14.1% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Annie Schmidt | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Mariel Marchand | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Kayla Ellis | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 2.0% |
| Marlena Fauer | 15.3% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 13.4% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Chandler Salisbury | 9.2% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Amanda Donohue | 2.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 23.7% | 18.8% |
| Laura Dunphy | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 1.8% |
| Liz Dubovik | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 1.2% |
| Christina Lewis | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 2.1% |
| Elise Gehling | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 6.6% |
| Caitlin Watson | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 8.3% | 2.7% |
| Elizabeth Glivinski | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 2.0% |
| Johanna Kincaid | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Meghan Colwell | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 13.6% | 59.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.