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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.14+11.65vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia3.54+6.04vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.67+4.68vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.98+2.63vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College4.05+1.18vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College3.78+1.42vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University4.71-2.73vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University4.01-1.60vs Predicted
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9Stanford University4.05-2.52vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida3.49-1.77vs Predicted
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11University of Washington2.79-0.05vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan2.86-1.41vs Predicted
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13University of Miami2.28-0.37vs Predicted
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14Eckerd College3.24-4.60vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College3.60-7.08vs Predicted
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16University of Minnesota1.95-2.43vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University at Galveston1.81-3.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.65University of California at Santa Barbara2.140.0%1st Place
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8.04University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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7.68U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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6.63Brown University3.980.1%1st Place
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6.18Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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7.42Connecticut College3.780.1%1st Place
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4.27Roger Williams University4.710.2%1st Place
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6.4Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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6.48Stanford University4.050.1%1st Place
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8.23University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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10.95University of Washington2.790.0%1st Place
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10.59University of Michigan2.860.0%1st Place
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12.63University of Miami2.280.0%1st Place
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9.4Eckerd College3.240.0%1st Place
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7.92SUNY Maritime College3.600.1%1st Place
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13.57University of Minnesota1.950.0%1st Place
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13.95Texas A&M University at Galveston1.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Stokes | 2.5% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 12.7% | 18.7% | 15.6% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Michael Grove | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Colin Smith | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Wefer | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Martland | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Alec Anderson | 17.7% | 16.6% | 13.6% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 10.8% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Laube | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Stocke | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| Karl Haelsig | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 5.1% |
| Matthew Graham | 2.8% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 4.5% |
| Ben Jassin | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 15.1% | 15.8% |
| Wesley Byrne | 3.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| Harry Scott | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Ryan Grosch | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 18.8% | 23.6% |
| Benjamin Kennady | 0.9% | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 17.2% | 31.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.