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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College4.05+4.98vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.80+4.85vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University4.71+1.05vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida3.49+4.15vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University4.01+1.04vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.69+1.47vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.67+0.43vs Predicted
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8Eckerd College3.24+0.88vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara2.14+3.94vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan2.86+0.32vs Predicted
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11Texas A&M University at Galveston1.81+2.80vs Predicted
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12University of Miami2.83-1.51vs Predicted
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13University of Washington2.25-0.45vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia3.54-6.03vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College3.78-8.00vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College3.06-6.31vs Predicted
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17University of Minnesota1.95-3.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.98Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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6.85Stanford University3.800.1%1st Place
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4.05Roger Williams University4.710.2%1st Place
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8.15University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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6.04Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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7.47Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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7.43U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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8.88Eckerd College3.240.1%1st Place
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12.94University of California at Santa Barbara2.140.0%1st Place
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10.32University of Michigan2.860.0%1st Place
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13.8Texas A&M University at Galveston1.810.0%1st Place
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10.49University of Miami2.830.0%1st Place
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12.55University of Washington2.250.0%1st Place
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7.97University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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7.0Connecticut College3.780.1%1st Place
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9.69SUNY Maritime College3.060.0%1st Place
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13.4University of Minnesota1.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Wefer | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hans Henken | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Alec Anderson | 18.5% | 17.0% | 14.2% | 13.6% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stocke | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Dillon Paiva | 10.4% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Judge Ryan | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Michael Grove | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Wesley Byrne | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Ian Stokes | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 14.3% | 18.7% | 15.7% |
| Matthew Graham | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 3.3% |
| Benjamin Kennady | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 17.4% | 31.7% |
| Taylor Scheuermann | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 5.2% |
| Kris Thompson | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 16.3% | 14.4% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 5.2% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Kevin Martland | 8.1% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Steel | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 2.1% |
| Ryan Grosch | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 13.4% | 17.2% | 24.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.