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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University4.30+3.68vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.82+4.29vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.72+3.72vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.95+2.05vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.05+4.07vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.49+1.83vs Predicted
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7University of Virginia3.01+2.48vs Predicted
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8University of South Florida3.49-0.50vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.74-2.12vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan3.02-0.74vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California2.93-1.21vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College2.89-2.16vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara2.05-0.20vs Predicted
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14University of Minnesota2.53-2.71vs Predicted
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15University of Washington2.19-2.78vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College3.44-8.21vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University at Galveston0.89-1.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.68Brown University4.300.2%1st Place
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6.29Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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6.72Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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6.05Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.07SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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7.83Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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9.48University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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7.5University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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6.88U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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9.26University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
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9.79University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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9.84Eckerd College2.890.0%1st Place
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12.8University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.0%1st Place
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11.29University of Minnesota2.530.0%1st Place
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12.22University of Washington2.190.0%1st Place
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7.79Connecticut College3.440.1%1st Place
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15.51Texas A&M University at Galveston0.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Fink | 17.5% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Oliver Toole | 8.9% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| William Macdonald | 11.4% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nick Valente | 3.7% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 2.2% |
| Scott Houck | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 1.9% |
| Will Stocke | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Mary Hall | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Seago | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
| Matthew Hecht | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 1.9% |
| Tony Collins | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 2.1% |
| Ginger Luckey | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 14.3% | 21.4% | 13.1% |
| Drake Lundeen | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 4.8% |
| Zachary Forcade | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 19.9% | 9.5% |
| Peter Miller | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Nicholas Chong | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 12.4% | 62.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.