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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.72+5.62vs Predicted
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2Brown University4.30+2.78vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.82+3.43vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.74+2.74vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College3.44+2.65vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.49+1.79vs Predicted
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7Eckerd College2.89+2.86vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College3.05+1.06vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida3.49-1.26vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan3.02-0.78vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia3.01-1.47vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University3.95-6.01vs Predicted
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13Texas A&M University at Galveston0.89+2.40vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara2.05-1.17vs Predicted
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15University of Minnesota2.53-3.80vs Predicted
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16University of Southern California2.93-6.18vs Predicted
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17University of Washington2.19-4.66vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.62Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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4.78Brown University4.300.2%1st Place
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6.43Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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6.74U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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7.65Connecticut College3.440.1%1st Place
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7.79Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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9.86Eckerd College2.890.0%1st Place
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9.06SUNY Maritime College3.050.1%1st Place
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7.74University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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9.22University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
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9.53University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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5.99Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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15.4Texas A&M University at Galveston0.890.0%1st Place
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12.83University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.0%1st Place
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11.2University of Minnesota2.530.0%1st Place
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9.82University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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12.34University of Washington2.190.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Toole | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Tommy Fink | 16.6% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Mary Hall | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Peter Miller | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Scott Houck | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Tony Collins | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 1.7% |
| Nick Valente | 5.9% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 1.1% |
| Will Stocke | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Seago | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 1.3% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 1.0% |
| William Macdonald | 10.2% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Chong | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 6.5% | 14.0% | 61.4% |
| Ginger Luckey | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 22.6% | 13.4% |
| Drake Lundeen | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 5.4% |
| Matthew Hecht | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 1.8% |
| Zachary Forcade | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 10.0% | 15.3% | 17.0% | 11.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.