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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.49+6.46vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.72+4.61vs Predicted
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3Brown University4.30+1.85vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College3.44+3.91vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.05+4.07vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.74+0.92vs Predicted
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7Eckerd College2.89+2.90vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California2.93+1.54vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University3.82-2.44vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.95-4.09vs Predicted
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11University of Virginia3.01-1.44vs Predicted
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12University of Washington2.28-0.02vs Predicted
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13University of Minnesota2.53-1.70vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan3.02-4.46vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida3.49-7.40vs Predicted
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16Texas A&M University at Galveston0.89-0.51vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.05-4.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.46Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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6.61Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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4.85Brown University4.300.1%1st Place
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7.91Connecticut College3.440.1%1st Place
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9.07SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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6.92U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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9.9Eckerd College2.890.0%1st Place
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9.54University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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6.56Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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5.91Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.56University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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11.98University of Washington2.280.0%1st Place
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11.3University of Minnesota2.530.0%1st Place
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9.54University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
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7.6University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
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15.49Texas A&M University at Galveston0.890.0%1st Place
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12.79University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Houck | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Oliver Toole | 8.1% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Fink | 15.0% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 12.2% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Miller | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Nick Valente | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 1.8% |
| Mary Hall | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Tony Collins | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 1.7% |
| Matthew Hecht | 4.6% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 2.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| William Macdonald | 10.5% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 4.8% | 1.5% |
| Sam Parish | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 15.0% | 17.1% | 8.4% |
| Drake Lundeen | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 5.7% |
| Ryan Seago | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 1.5% |
| Will Stocke | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Murphy | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 13.7% | 61.2% |
| Ginger Luckey | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 13.5% | 21.3% | 14.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.