← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Virginia3.01+8.19vs Predicted
-
2SUNY Maritime College3.05+7.16vs Predicted
-
3Old Dominion University3.82+3.42vs Predicted
-
4University of Minnesota2.53+7.21vs Predicted
-
5Brown University4.30-0.23vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Naval Academy3.74+0.88vs Predicted
-
7Dartmouth College3.49+0.60vs Predicted
-
8University of Southern California2.93+1.57vs Predicted
-
9Roger Williams University3.95-2.89vs Predicted
-
10University of Washington2.28+1.94vs Predicted
-
11University of Michigan3.02-1.47vs Predicted
-
12Stanford University3.72-5.26vs Predicted
-
13University of South Florida3.49-5.32vs Predicted
-
14Eckerd College2.89-3.97vs Predicted
-
15University of California at Santa Barbara2.05-2.29vs Predicted
-
16Texas A&M University at Galveston0.89-0.45vs Predicted
-
17Connecticut College3.44-9.09vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
9.19University of Virginia3.010.1%1st Place
-
9.16SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
-
6.42Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
-
11.21University of Minnesota2.530.0%1st Place
-
4.77Brown University4.300.2%1st Place
-
6.88U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
-
7.6Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
-
9.57University of Southern California2.930.1%1st Place
-
6.11Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
-
11.94University of Washington2.280.0%1st Place
-
9.53University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
-
6.74Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
-
7.68University of South Florida3.490.1%1st Place
-
10.03Eckerd College2.890.0%1st Place
-
12.71University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.0%1st Place
-
15.55Texas A&M University at Galveston0.890.0%1st Place
-
7.91Connecticut College3.440.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Stessing | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Nick Valente | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 0.8% |
| Esteban Forrer | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Drake Lundeen | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 11.8% | 5.8% |
| Tommy Fink | 16.8% | 14.8% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mary Hall | 7.8% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Scott Houck | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Hecht | 5.0% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 2.0% |
| William Macdonald | 8.8% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Sam Parish | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 14.7% | 9.5% |
| Ryan Seago | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 1.4% |
| Oliver Toole | 8.4% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Will Stocke | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Tony Collins | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 1.6% |
| Ginger Luckey | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 14.1% | 21.2% | 14.3% |
| Nicholas Chong | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 15.4% | 61.6% |
| Peter Miller | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.