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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.95+4.74vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College3.05+7.13vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.82+3.36vs Predicted
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4Brown University4.30+0.89vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida3.24+3.31vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.49+1.69vs Predicted
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7Stanford University3.72-0.32vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy3.74-1.50vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College3.44-1.10vs Predicted
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10University of Minnesota2.53+1.12vs Predicted
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11University of Washington2.28+1.02vs Predicted
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12University of Virginia3.01-2.67vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California2.93-3.21vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Barbara2.05-1.19vs Predicted
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15Eckerd College2.89-5.16vs Predicted
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16Texas A&M University at Galveston0.89-0.53vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan3.02-7.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.74Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.13SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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6.36Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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4.89Brown University4.300.2%1st Place
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8.31University of South Florida3.240.1%1st Place
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7.69Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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6.68Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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6.5U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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7.9Connecticut College3.440.1%1st Place
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11.12University of Minnesota2.530.0%1st Place
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12.02University of Washington2.280.0%1st Place
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9.33University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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9.79University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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12.81University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.0%1st Place
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9.84Eckerd College2.890.0%1st Place
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15.47Texas A&M University at Galveston0.890.0%1st Place
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9.42University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Macdonald | 12.8% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Nick Valente | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 4.0% | 0.8% |
| Esteban Forrer | 9.9% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Tommy Fink | 15.5% | 13.5% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Fernando Monllor | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Scott Houck | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Oliver Toole | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Mary Hall | 9.6% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Peter Miller | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Drake Lundeen | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 5.6% |
| Sam Parish | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 17.6% | 9.5% |
| Christopher Stessing | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 1.7% |
| Matthew Hecht | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 1.4% |
| Ginger Luckey | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 13.3% | 21.8% | 14.0% |
| Tony Collins | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 2.6% |
| Nicholas Chong | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 12.9% | 60.7% |
| Ryan Seago | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 1.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.