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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.72+5.60vs Predicted
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2University of South Florida3.24+6.48vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.82+3.37vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.49+3.63vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.74+1.53vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College3.05+3.36vs Predicted
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7Brown University4.30-2.22vs Predicted
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8University of Michigan3.02+1.17vs Predicted
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9University of Minnesota2.53+2.30vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia3.01-0.76vs Predicted
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11University of Washington2.28+1.02vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College3.44-4.30vs Predicted
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13Eckerd College2.89-3.03vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California2.93-4.26vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University3.95-9.10vs Predicted
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16Texas A&M University at Galveston0.89-0.52vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara2.05-4.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.6Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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8.48University of South Florida3.240.1%1st Place
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6.37Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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7.63Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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6.53U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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9.36SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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4.78Brown University4.300.1%1st Place
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9.17University of Michigan3.020.1%1st Place
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11.3University of Minnesota2.530.0%1st Place
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9.24University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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12.02University of Washington2.280.0%1st Place
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7.7Connecticut College3.440.1%1st Place
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9.97Eckerd College2.890.0%1st Place
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9.74University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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5.9Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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15.48Texas A&M University at Galveston0.890.0%1st Place
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12.73University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Toole | 9.9% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Fernando Monllor | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Esteban Forrer | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Scott Houck | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Mary Hall | 9.0% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nick Valente | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 1.7% |
| Tommy Fink | 14.9% | 14.6% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Seago | 5.4% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 1.1% |
| Drake Lundeen | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 13.8% | 4.8% |
| Christopher Stessing | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 1.6% |
| Sam Parish | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 18.4% | 9.4% |
| Peter Miller | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.3% |
| Tony Collins | 4.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 2.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 1.6% |
| William Macdonald | 11.4% | 12.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Chong | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 11.4% | 61.9% |
| Ginger Luckey | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 15.8% | 18.7% | 14.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.