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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.05+7.92vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.74+4.49vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University3.82+3.25vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California2.93+5.66vs Predicted
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5Eckerd College2.89+4.56vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.90+0.18vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College3.44+0.67vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.49-0.65vs Predicted
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9University of Washington2.28+3.13vs Predicted
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10University of Minnesota2.53+0.97vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.47-3.30vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida3.24-3.58vs Predicted
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13Brown University4.30-8.20vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan3.02-4.59vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Barbara2.05-2.35vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia3.01-6.65vs Predicted
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17Texas A&M University at Galveston0.89-1.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.92SUNY Maritime College3.050.1%1st Place
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6.49U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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6.25Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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9.66University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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9.56Eckerd College2.890.0%1st Place
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6.18Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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7.67Connecticut College3.440.1%1st Place
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7.35Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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12.13University of Washington2.280.0%1st Place
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10.97University of Minnesota2.530.0%1st Place
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7.7Roger Williams University3.470.1%1st Place
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8.42University of South Florida3.240.1%1st Place
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4.8Brown University4.300.2%1st Place
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9.41University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
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12.65University of California at Santa Barbara2.050.0%1st Place
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9.35University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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15.47Texas A&M University at Galveston0.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Valente | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 0.8% |
| Mary Hall | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Esteban Forrer | 10.1% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Hecht | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 1.5% |
| Tony Collins | 3.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 2.7% |
| Mateo Vargas | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Peter Miller | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Scott Houck | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Sam Parish | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 13.8% | 17.2% | 9.6% |
| Drake Lundeen | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 4.4% |
| Connor Needham | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Fernando Monllor | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Tommy Fink | 15.9% | 13.9% | 13.8% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Seago | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 1.3% |
| Ginger Luckey | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 21.5% | 13.8% |
| Christopher Stessing | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Nicholas Chong | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 13.3% | 61.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.