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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
8
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.77+2.64vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy0.52+3.81vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+0.84vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.20-1.11vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University0.95-0.02vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61-0.32vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University1.86-3.50vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University0.65-2.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.64University of Pennsylvania1.7717.1%1st Place
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5.81U. S. Naval Academy0.525.1%1st Place
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3.84St. Mary's College of Maryland1.7615.1%1st Place
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2.89Georgetown University2.2025.4%1st Place
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4.98Old Dominion University0.958.2%1st Place
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5.68St. Mary's College of Maryland0.615.3%1st Place
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3.5Georgetown University1.8618.7%1st Place
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5.67Christopher Newport University0.655.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 17.1% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 10.4% | 6.6% | 2.4% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 21.1% | 29.2% |
| Madison Bashaw | 15.1% | 14.8% | 14.9% | 17.4% | 14.2% | 13.2% | 7.9% | 2.5% |
| Piper Holthus | 25.4% | 23.6% | 17.8% | 14.7% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 14.6% | 16.2% | 16.8% | 13.2% |
| Lily Flack | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 15.9% | 21.4% | 24.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 18.7% | 17.2% | 18.9% | 14.3% | 13.2% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 15.5% | 17.9% | 26.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.