← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
87.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
8
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Georgetown University2.20+1.90vs Predicted
-
2University of Pennsylvania1.77+1.57vs Predicted
-
3Georgetown University1.86+0.54vs Predicted
-
4U. S. Naval Academy0.52+1.92vs Predicted
-
5Old Dominion University0.95-0.04vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.61-0.40vs Predicted
-
7Christopher Newport University0.65-1.31vs Predicted
-
8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76-4.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
2.9Georgetown University2.2026.4%1st Place
-
3.57University of Pennsylvania1.7717.8%1st Place
-
3.54Georgetown University1.8617.8%1st Place
-
5.92U. S. Naval Academy0.524.2%1st Place
-
4.96Old Dominion University0.958.0%1st Place
-
5.6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.615.4%1st Place
-
5.69Christopher Newport University0.655.5%1st Place
-
3.82St. Mary's College of Maryland1.7614.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 26.4% | 21.4% | 19.3% | 14.0% | 10.3% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Sofia Segalla | 17.8% | 16.8% | 17.7% | 15.6% | 13.5% | 10.3% | 6.3% | 2.1% |
| Kelly Bates | 17.8% | 17.3% | 17.1% | 15.4% | 14.6% | 10.1% | 6.0% | 1.7% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 15.6% | 20.8% | 29.5% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 8.0% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 14.1% | 14.8% | 16.9% | 14.0% |
| Lily Flack | 5.4% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 16.6% | 20.4% | 22.5% |
| Grace Watlington | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 14.6% | 19.9% | 26.6% |
| Madison Bashaw | 14.9% | 15.4% | 15.1% | 18.1% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 7.2% | 3.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.