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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University1.84+1.73vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston1.09+2.03vs Predicted
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3Yale University0.36+2.69vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.80-1.03vs Predicted
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5Brown University0.33+0.83vs Predicted
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6McGill University-0.81+2.48vs Predicted
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7Fairfield University-0.82+1.51vs Predicted
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8Tufts University0.78-3.64vs Predicted
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9University of New Hampshire-0.99-0.29vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University-1.01-1.37vs Predicted
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11Middlebury College-1.99+0.26vs Predicted
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12Bates College-1.99-1.07vs Predicted
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13University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.10-1.75vs Predicted
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14University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.27-2.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.73Roger Williams University1.8428.0%1st Place
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4.03College of Charleston1.0913.7%1st Place
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5.69Yale University0.366.2%1st Place
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2.97University of Rhode Island1.8024.9%1st Place
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5.83Brown University0.335.7%1st Place
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8.48McGill University-0.811.9%1st Place
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8.51Fairfield University-0.821.9%1st Place
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4.36Tufts University0.7811.3%1st Place
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8.71University of New Hampshire-0.992.2%1st Place
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8.63Salve Regina University-1.011.8%1st Place
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11.26Middlebury College-1.990.4%1st Place
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10.93Bates College-1.990.6%1st Place
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11.25University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.100.9%1st Place
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11.62University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.270.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Mastovsky | 28.0% | 23.6% | 20.8% | 13.4% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Polek | 13.7% | 15.2% | 15.6% | 16.4% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Rifkind-Brown | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Declan Botwinick | 24.9% | 23.3% | 17.5% | 14.3% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Keller Morrison | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 14.2% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Pierre Offredi | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 12.2% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 1.2% |
| Michael Cunniff | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Niall Sheridan | 11.3% | 12.6% | 14.3% | 15.3% | 16.4% | 12.6% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Poynter | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 5.9% | 2.0% |
| Garrett Moen | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 14.4% | 12.2% | 9.4% | 5.5% | 2.1% |
| Evelyn Lane | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 14.6% | 20.9% | 22.8% |
| John Hull | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 15.8% | 18.5% | 17.7% |
| Ozel Yilmazel | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 17.1% | 21.3% | 21.9% |
| Carissa Keung | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 14.4% | 18.7% | 30.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.