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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston1.09+3.06vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University1.84+0.69vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island1.80-0.09vs Predicted
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4Tufts University0.78+0.51vs Predicted
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5Yale University0.36+0.60vs Predicted
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6Brown University0.33-0.32vs Predicted
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7Middlebury College-1.99+4.45vs Predicted
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8McGill University-0.81+0.41vs Predicted
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9Bates College-1.99+2.10vs Predicted
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10Fairfield University-0.82-1.57vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire-0.99-2.18vs Predicted
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12University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.27-0.50vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University-1.01-4.40vs Predicted
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14University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.10-2.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.06College of Charleston1.0913.4%1st Place
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2.69Roger Williams University1.8428.8%1st Place
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2.91University of Rhode Island1.8025.5%1st Place
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4.51Tufts University0.7810.4%1st Place
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5.6Yale University0.366.9%1st Place
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5.68Brown University0.335.8%1st Place
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11.45Middlebury College-1.990.4%1st Place
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8.41McGill University-0.811.6%1st Place
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11.1Bates College-1.990.4%1st Place
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8.43Fairfield University-0.822.2%1st Place
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8.82University of New Hampshire-0.991.6%1st Place
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11.5University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.270.5%1st Place
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8.6Salve Regina University-1.012.4%1st Place
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11.23University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.100.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Polek | 13.4% | 14.6% | 15.4% | 16.2% | 14.9% | 11.2% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Mastovsky | 28.8% | 24.8% | 18.8% | 13.4% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Declan Botwinick | 25.5% | 22.5% | 19.9% | 13.4% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niall Sheridan | 10.4% | 11.9% | 12.9% | 16.2% | 14.8% | 13.8% | 10.1% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Rifkind-Brown | 6.9% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 14.4% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Keller Morrison | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 7.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Evelyn Lane | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 11.3% | 14.1% | 20.3% | 26.4% |
| Pierre Offredi | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 13.1% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| John Hull | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 16.0% | 18.2% | 19.6% |
| Michael Cunniff | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 13.8% | 14.8% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 4.9% | 1.2% |
| Henry Poynter | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 14.0% | 10.8% | 5.9% | 2.0% |
| Carissa Keung | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 15.4% | 20.4% | 26.8% |
| Garrett Moen | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 13.6% | 15.0% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 5.4% | 2.1% |
| Ozel Yilmazel | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 12.4% | 15.8% | 20.9% | 20.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.