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📊 Prediction Accuracy
78.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island1.80+1.95vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University1.84+0.73vs Predicted
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3Brown University0.33+2.79vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston1.09+0.06vs Predicted
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5Tufts University0.78-0.61vs Predicted
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6Yale University0.36-0.34vs Predicted
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7Fairfield University-0.82+1.38vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University-1.01+0.70vs Predicted
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9Bates College-1.99+1.99vs Predicted
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10McGill University-0.81-1.61vs Predicted
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11University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.10+0.19vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire-0.99-3.12vs Predicted
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13Middlebury College-1.99-1.64vs Predicted
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14University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.27-2.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.95University of Rhode Island1.8025.4%1st Place
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2.73Roger Williams University1.8427.2%1st Place
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5.79Brown University0.335.5%1st Place
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4.06College of Charleston1.0914.2%1st Place
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4.39Tufts University0.7812.0%1st Place
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5.66Yale University0.366.3%1st Place
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8.38Fairfield University-0.822.0%1st Place
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8.7Salve Regina University-1.011.8%1st Place
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10.99Bates College-1.990.4%1st Place
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8.39McGill University-0.811.8%1st Place
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11.19University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.100.7%1st Place
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8.88University of New Hampshire-0.991.6%1st Place
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11.36Middlebury College-1.990.3%1st Place
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11.53University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.270.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Botwinick | 25.4% | 22.0% | 19.3% | 14.2% | 9.3% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Mastovsky | 27.2% | 25.1% | 19.7% | 13.2% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Keller Morrison | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 15.6% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Polek | 14.2% | 13.9% | 15.7% | 16.0% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niall Sheridan | 12.0% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 16.0% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 9.4% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Rifkind-Brown | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 14.4% | 13.2% | 14.9% | 10.4% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Cunniff | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 13.9% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Garrett Moen | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 12.2% | 14.1% | 14.6% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
| John Hull | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 16.6% | 18.1% | 19.8% |
| Pierre Offredi | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 13.7% | 14.1% | 11.5% | 8.1% | 4.5% | 1.3% |
| Ozel Yilmazel | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 12.4% | 16.1% | 20.6% | 20.6% |
| Henry Poynter | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 14.4% | 14.6% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 5.5% | 2.3% |
| Evelyn Lane | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 14.8% | 21.1% | 24.1% |
| Carissa Keung | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 14.6% | 19.8% | 28.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.