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📊 Prediction Accuracy
69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island1.80+1.90vs Predicted
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2Tufts University0.78+2.41vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston1.09+0.99vs Predicted
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4Brown University0.33+1.74vs Predicted
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5Yale University0.36+0.64vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University1.84-3.26vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire-0.99+1.56vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University-1.01+0.42vs Predicted
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9McGill University-0.81-0.99vs Predicted
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10University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.10+0.78vs Predicted
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11Middlebury College-1.99-0.02vs Predicted
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12Fairfield University-0.82-3.74vs Predicted
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13Bates College-1.99-2.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.9University of Rhode Island1.8027.1%1st Place
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4.41Tufts University0.7810.8%1st Place
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3.99College of Charleston1.0913.9%1st Place
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5.74Brown University0.335.8%1st Place
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5.64Yale University0.365.1%1st Place
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2.74Roger Williams University1.8427.4%1st Place
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8.56University of New Hampshire-0.992.5%1st Place
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8.42Salve Regina University-1.011.6%1st Place
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8.01McGill University-0.812.2%1st Place
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10.78University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.100.7%1st Place
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10.98Middlebury College-1.990.4%1st Place
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8.26Fairfield University-0.821.9%1st Place
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10.56Bates College-1.990.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Botwinick | 27.1% | 21.8% | 18.9% | 13.4% | 9.3% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Niall Sheridan | 10.8% | 11.8% | 14.6% | 15.8% | 15.2% | 13.1% | 9.5% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Polek | 13.9% | 15.3% | 15.3% | 15.9% | 14.8% | 12.0% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Keller Morrison | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 11.3% | 14.0% | 15.3% | 13.6% | 11.8% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Sam Rifkind-Brown | 5.1% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 14.5% | 14.4% | 11.8% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Drew Mastovsky | 27.4% | 24.6% | 19.1% | 13.9% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Henry Poynter | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 14.0% | 15.8% | 14.8% | 9.9% | 3.7% |
| Garrett Moen | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 14.4% | 14.9% | 13.5% | 8.3% | 4.0% |
| Pierre Offredi | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 13.6% | 15.0% | 13.7% | 10.9% | 6.7% | 2.6% |
| Ozel Yilmazel | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 15.8% | 21.3% | 29.5% |
| Evelyn Lane | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 22.9% | 32.9% |
| Michael Cunniff | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 16.4% | 15.8% | 12.3% | 6.4% | 2.6% |
| John Hull | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 16.1% | 23.4% | 24.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.