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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College1.95+4.57vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.58+1.69vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.18+4.89vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.15+4.02vs Predicted
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5Boston College1.61+1.58vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College0.50+4.34vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University1.23+1.16vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.35-0.71vs Predicted
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9Boston College1.56-1.85vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.51-3.13vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University1.25-3.24vs Predicted
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12Tufts University0.80-2.80vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College0.05-4.63vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.16-5.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.57Boston College1.9510.3%1st Place
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3.69Boston College2.5821.9%1st Place
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7.89Tufts University1.185.0%1st Place
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8.02Tufts University1.156.0%1st Place
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6.58Boston College1.618.4%1st Place
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10.34Bowdoin College0.502.9%1st Place
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8.16Roger Williams University1.235.0%1st Place
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7.29Tufts University1.356.7%1st Place
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7.15Boston College1.566.7%1st Place
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6.87Tufts University1.517.4%1st Place
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7.76Roger Williams University1.256.2%1st Place
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9.2Tufts University0.803.2%1st Place
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8.37Bowdoin College0.054.8%1st Place
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8.1Tufts University1.165.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 10.3% | 12.1% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Peter Busch | 21.9% | 18.9% | 15.0% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adrien Bellanger | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.6% |
| Ella Hubbard | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.9% |
| Graham Ness | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Alex Kitay | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 14.5% | 28.6% |
| Chase Reynolds | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 6.6% |
| Matthew Wallace | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% |
| Nick Budington | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% |
| Clark Morris | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Alexandra Chigas | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% |
| Blake Vogel | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 15.2% |
| Benjamin Stevens | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% |
| Adam Larzelere | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.