← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.96+3.17vs Predicted
-
2University of Vermont2.93+5.30vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Naval Academy2.79+4.69vs Predicted
-
4Fordham University2.73+3.57vs Predicted
-
5George Washington University2.84+2.26vs Predicted
-
6Old Dominion University2.92+1.13vs Predicted
-
7Georgetown University3.77-2.40vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+0.07vs Predicted
-
9University of Virginia3.54-3.92vs Predicted
-
10William and Mary1.27+2.51vs Predicted
-
11Cornell University3.35-5.19vs Predicted
-
12Christopher Newport University1.67-0.61vs Predicted
-
13SUNY Maritime College1.39-1.16vs Predicted
-
14Princeton University0.13+0.84vs Predicted
-
15Hampton University1.86-4.47vs Predicted
-
16Drexel University1.52-4.30vs Predicted
-
17University of Maryland-0.39-1.16vs Predicted
-
18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-2.62-0.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
4.17St. Mary's College of Maryland3.960.2%1st Place
-
7.3University of Vermont2.930.0%1st Place
-
7.69U. S. Naval Academy2.790.1%1st Place
-
7.57Fordham University2.730.1%1st Place
-
7.26George Washington University2.840.1%1st Place
-
7.13Old Dominion University2.920.1%1st Place
-
4.6Georgetown University3.770.2%1st Place
-
8.07U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
-
5.08University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
-
12.51William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
-
5.81Cornell University3.350.1%1st Place
-
11.39Christopher Newport University1.670.0%1st Place
-
11.84SUNY Maritime College1.390.0%1st Place
-
14.84Princeton University0.130.0%1st Place
-
10.53Hampton University1.860.0%1st Place
-
11.7Drexel University1.520.0%1st Place
-
15.84University of Maryland-0.390.0%1st Place
-
17.67U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-2.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Diaz De Leon | 18.6% | 14.9% | 13.9% | 13.3% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kimberly Kaull | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Allsopp | 5.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 11.4% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Ricketson | 5.6% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zach Runci | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Campbell | 15.4% | 15.2% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Cotta | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gordon Wolcott | 12.4% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Conway | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 10.5% | 14.3% | 18.4% | 15.1% | 4.8% | 0.3% |
| Lauren Turner | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Myers | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 15.9% | 12.4% | 8.0% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Patrick Walker | 2.2% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 14.6% | 12.6% | 3.5% | 0.2% |
| Eleanor Elbert | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 27.2% | 27.3% | 3.9% |
| Shane Horsford | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Bergan | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 14.6% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| Scott Gilson | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 7.7% | 16.9% | 52.2% | 8.1% |
| Aaron Gracely | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% | 6.1% | 87.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.