Race 4A

harvard-fj-invitational

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Chase Reynolds 5.0% 5.3% 5.7% 5.8% 6.5% 6.6% 6.8% 7.9% 6.2% 8.6% 8.8% 9.2% 9.4% 8.3%
Peter Busch 22.4% 18.6% 15.7% 12.1% 9.6% 7.4% 5.1% 3.2% 2.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Graham Ness 7.1% 7.6% 8.3% 9.0% 8.7% 8.6% 8.1% 7.5% 8.2% 7.2% 6.8% 4.8% 4.8% 3.2%
Adrien Bellanger 4.7% 6.5% 6.0% 6.4% 6.6% 6.7% 7.9% 8.2% 7.2% 8.1% 8.7% 8.5% 8.6% 6.0%
Nick Budington 8.5% 7.1% 6.9% 8.5% 7.5% 7.4% 8.8% 7.0% 7.8% 7.4% 7.0% 7.5% 5.2% 3.5%
Alex Kitay 2.4% 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.9% 4.2% 4.8% 5.6% 6.3% 7.2% 9.0% 14.5% 29.8%
Ian Hopkins Guerra 10.2% 12.3% 11.1% 10.6% 9.8% 8.3% 8.6% 7.1% 6.5% 5.5% 4.0% 3.5% 1.8% 0.6%
Adam Larzelere 5.8% 4.5% 6.3% 5.3% 6.3% 7.3% 7.0% 8.4% 8.2% 7.5% 8.1% 9.1% 8.5% 7.7%
Alexandra Chigas 5.1% 5.9% 6.8% 7.5% 8.3% 7.4% 7.5% 6.9% 8.8% 7.7% 8.0% 7.3% 7.2% 5.5%
Ella Hubbard 6.0% 5.7% 5.1% 6.5% 5.5% 7.7% 6.6% 8.2% 6.8% 8.6% 8.3% 9.2% 8.8% 7.0%
Matthew Wallace 6.4% 6.6% 8.2% 7.0% 6.9% 7.8% 9.2% 7.9% 8.0% 7.3% 8.5% 7.8% 5.2% 3.4%
Benjamin Stevens 5.0% 5.4% 5.4% 5.8% 6.6% 6.7% 6.8% 8.0% 8.3% 8.5% 7.6% 8.0% 8.8% 9.2%
Clark Morris 7.1% 7.1% 7.5% 8.3% 9.6% 8.7% 7.2% 8.7% 8.7% 7.0% 7.3% 5.5% 4.6% 2.6%
Blake Vogel 4.3% 4.3% 3.8% 4.2% 5.2% 5.5% 6.1% 6.5% 7.0% 8.3% 9.2% 10.3% 12.2% 13.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.