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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+2.88vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.27+3.32vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College1.88+1.21vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.42+0.99vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.89-0.17vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.81-1.94vs Predicted
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7Cornell University0.46+0.05vs Predicted
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8Cornell University0.98-2.05vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.58-4.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1616.8%1st Place
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5.32George Washington University1.2710.2%1st Place
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4.21SUNY Maritime College1.8813.9%1st Place
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4.99Fordham University1.4210.2%1st Place
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4.83Fordham University1.8911.1%1st Place
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4.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.8117.0%1st Place
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7.05Cornell University0.462.9%1st Place
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5.95Cornell University0.986.3%1st Place
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4.71University of Pennsylvania1.5811.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
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Will Murray | 16.8% | 16.4% | 15.6% | 14.1% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 1.8% |
Oscar MacGillivray | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 14.8% | 11.3% |
Spencer Barnes | 13.9% | 14.6% | 13.6% | 14.2% | 13.9% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 2.6% |
Beckett Kumler | 10.2% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 8.0% |
Kenneth Corsig | 11.1% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 13.6% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 7.2% |
Richard Gleason | 17.0% | 14.7% | 14.4% | 13.1% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 3.1% |
Aidan Lane | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 16.8% | 40.9% |
Sophia Peck | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 16.7% | 19.0% |
Cole Woodworth | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 9.6% | 5.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.