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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.49+9.50vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University3.82+7.08vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.95+5.50vs Predicted
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4Brown University4.30+2.79vs Predicted
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5Boston College3.92+3.38vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.79+2.97vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.80+1.96vs Predicted
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8Stanford University3.72+1.23vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.95-0.73vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-1.75vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-1.29vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy3.74-2.36vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University4.36-6.47vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida3.49-4.00vs Predicted
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15University of Virginia3.01-2.72vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin2.85-3.02vs Predicted
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17Tufts University3.37-6.01vs Predicted
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18SUNY Maritime College3.05-6.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.5Dartmouth College3.490.0%1st Place
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9.08Old Dominion University3.820.0%1st Place
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8.5College of Charleston3.950.1%1st Place
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6.79Brown University4.300.1%1st Place
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8.38Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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8.97Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.790.1%1st Place
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8.96Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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9.23Stanford University3.720.1%1st Place
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8.27Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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8.25St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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9.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.1%1st Place
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9.64U. S. Naval Academy3.740.1%1st Place
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6.53Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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10.0University of South Florida3.490.0%1st Place
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12.28University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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12.98University of Wisconsin2.850.0%1st Place
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10.99Tufts University3.370.0%1st Place
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11.95SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Houck | 4.4% | 2.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 7.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Ben Spector | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| Tommy Fink | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| William Bailey | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Philip Crain | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.6% |
| Oliver Toole | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.4% |
| William Macdonald | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% |
| Fletcher Sims | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Louis Padnos | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% |
| Mary Hall | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% |
| Nevin Snow | 10.6% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Stocke | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.4% |
| Christopher Stessing | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 16.3% |
| Andrew Fox | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 22.4% |
| William Hutchings | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.5% |
| Nick Valente | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 13.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.